Cost‐effectiveness of conservation payment schemes for species with different range sizes

Payments to compensate landowners for carrying out costly land‐use measures that benefit endangered biodiversity have become an important policy instrument. When designing such payments, it is important to take into account that spatially connected habitats are more valuable for many species than isolated ones. One way to incentivize provision of connected habitats is to offer landowners an agglomeration bonus, that is, a bonus on top of payments they are receiving to conserve land if the land is spatially connected. Researchers have compared the cost‐effectiveness of the agglomeration bonus with 2 alternatives: an all‐or‐nothing, agglomeration payment, where landowners receive a payment only if the conserved land parcels have a certain level of spatial connectivity, and a spatially homogeneous payment, where landowners receive a payment for conserved land parcels irrespective of their location. Their results show the agglomeration bonus is rarely the most cost‐effective option, and when it is, it is only slightly better than one of the alternatives. This suggests that the agglomeration bonus should not be given priority as a policy design option. However, this finding is based on consideration of only 1 species. We examined whether the same applied to 2 species, one for which the homogeneous payment is best and the other for which the agglomeration payment is most cost‐effective. We modified a published conceptual model so that we were able to assess the cost‐effectiveness of payment schemes for 2 species and applied it to a grassland bird and a grassland butterfly in Germany that require the same habitat but have different spatial‐connectivity needs. When conserving both species, the agglomeration bonus was more cost‐effective than the agglomeration and the homogeneous payment; thus, we showed that as a policy the agglomeration bonus is a useful conservation‐payment option.     

Benchmarking Optical/Thermal Satellite Imagery for Estimating Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in Decision Support Tools

Generally, one expects evapotranspiration (ET) maps derived from optical/thermal Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to improve decision support tools and lead to superior decisions regarding water resources management. However, there is lack of supportive evidence to accept or reject this expectation. We “benchmark” three existing hydrologic decision support tools with the following benchmarks: annual ET for the ET Toolbox developed by the United States Bureau of Reclamation, predicted rainfall‐runoff hydrographs for the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the average annual groundwater recharge for the Distributed Parameter Watershed Model used by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates. The conclusion of this benchmark study is that the use of NASA/USGS optical/thermal satellite imagery can considerably improve hydrologic decision support tools compared to their traditional implementations. The benefits of improved decision making, resulting from more accurate results of hydrologic support systems using optical/thermal satellite imagery, should substantially exceed the costs for acquiring such imagery and implementing the remote sensing algorithms. In fact, the value of reduced error in estimating average annual groundwater recharge in the San Gabriel Mountains, California alone, in terms of value of water, may be as large as $1 billion, more than sufficient to pay for one new Landsat satellite.     

Modeling urban solar energy with high spatiotemporal resolution: A case study in Toronto,Canada

This research presents a method to determine the maximum potential for the capturing of solar radiation on the rooftop of buildings in an urban environment. This involves the modeling of solar energy potential and comparison to historical building energy demand profiles through the use of 3-D solar simulation software tools and geographic information systems (GIS). The objective is to accurately identify the amount of surface area that is suitable for solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and to estimate the hourly PV electricity generation potential of existing building rooftops in an urban environment. This study demonstrates a viable approach for modeling urban solar energy and offers valuable information for electricity distributors, policy makers, and urban energy planners to facilitate the substantial design of a green built environment. The developed methodology is comprised of three main sections: (1) determination of suitable rooftop area, (2) determination of the amount of incident solar radiation available per rooftop, and (3) estimation of hourly solar PV electricity generation potential. A case study was performed using this method for Ryerson University, located in Toronto, Canada. It was found that solar PV could supply up to 19% of the study area’s electricity demands during peak consumption hours. The potential benefits of solar PV was also estimated based upon hourly greenhouse gas emission intensity factors as well as Time-of-Use (TOU) savings through the Ontario Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) program, which allows for better representation of the positive impacts of solar technologies.     

Applying Statistical Causal Analyses to Agricultural Conservation: A Case Study Examining P Loss Impacts

Estimating the effect of agricultural conservation practices on reducing nutrient loss using observational data can be confounded by factors such as differing crop types and management practices. As we may not have the full knowledge of these confounding factors, conventional statistical meta‐analysis methods can be misleading. We discuss the use of two statistical causal analysis methods for quantifying the effects of water and soil conservation practices in reducing P loss from agricultural fields. With the propensity score method, a subset of data was used to form a treatment group and a control group with similar distributions of confounding factors. With the multilevel modeling method, data were stratified based on important confounding factors, and the conservation practice effect was evaluated for each stratum. Both methods resulted in similar estimates of the conservation practice effect (total P load reduction avg. ~70%). In addition, both methods show evidence of conservation practices reducing the incremental increase in total P export per unit increase in fertilizer application. These results are presented as examples of the types of outcomes provided by statistical causal analyses, not to provide definitive estimates of P loss reduction. The enhanced meta‐analysis methods presented within are applicable for improved assessment of agricultural practices and their effects and can be used for providing realistic parameter values for watershed‐scale modeling.     

化工园区生化出水氯代烃污染物的臭氧氧化降解

以化工园区污水处理厂生化出水为背景水样,考察了臭氧氧化对2,4,6-三氯酚、氯苯、1,2-二氯苯、对硝基氯苯、四氯酞酸5种特征氯代烃污染物的降解效果,并对其降解动力学进行了分析。实验结果表明:臭氧对2,4,6-三氯酚和氯苯的降解效果最好,反应30 min时的去除率均接近100%,其次为1,2-二氯苯和对硝基氯苯,反应30 min时的去除率分别为95.7%和36.0%,最差为四氯酞酸,反应30 min时的去除率仅为8.9%;臭氧对2,4,6-三氯酚和对硝基氯苯的降解符合零级动力学方程,对氯苯和1,2-二氯苯的降解符合一级动力学方程,对四氯酞酸的降解符合二级动力学方程。     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

青藏高原典型城市拉萨市近地面臭氧污染特征

拉萨市作为青藏高原典型城市,环境空气质量相对较好,但臭氧污染近年来有所凸显。对拉萨市臭氧的现状与污染特征进行分析基础上,探讨臭氧污染的影响因素。结果表明:拉萨市臭氧污染表现出"来得早,去得快"的特征,与内地城市相比,拉萨市臭氧质量浓度在3月即可达到全年平均值(2015年为105μg/m~3),而9月以后将低于全年平均值,并在春末夏初达到峰值;由于青藏高原海拔高,紫外线强,相对内陆地区臭氧均值偏高,2015年拉萨市臭氧年均值比北京市和成都市分别高出7.7%、29.0%,其小时浓度变化呈中午高、早晚低的特征;拉萨市臭氧的浓度变化受空气湿度、日照时间和日均气温的影响;生物质燃料的跨界传输可能也对青藏高原地区臭氧的来源产生一定影响。     

海口市臭氧污染特征

基于2013—2015年海口市4个空气质量自动监测站点数据,结合气象资料,分析了海口市O_3的污染特征。结果表明:海口市O_3总体优良,优良天数比例为99.4%,污染天数均为轻度污染;在良和污染天数中,O_3作为首要污染物的天数占40%,超过其他5项污染物占比。海口市10月O_3浓度最高。O_3月均浓度与温度呈负相关关系,同时与风向有密切关系:5—8月气温较高,以南风为主,O_3浓度较低;1月北风频率较高,易受外来污染传输作用,O_3浓度相对较高。O_3超标日以东北风为主,日变化并未呈现单峰型特征,12:00—22:00时段O_3浓度在10%范围内小幅变化。台风外围型和北方冷高压底部型是造成海口市O_3超标的2类典型天气形势。     

夏季太湖蓝藻水华暴发与臭氧污染的关联性

夏季受东南季风、湖流等因素影响,太湖蓝藻向西北部水域集聚,该区域平均藻密度可高达1×109个/L以上,其中蓝藻集中堆积的近湖岸区域藻类密度更高,蓝藻在不同生命阶段释放的藻源性VOCs的成分谱和产生量有较大差异,其中烯烃和有机胺反应活性较强。蓝藻水华高发期太湖西岸非甲烷总烃的浓度约为常州市区的3.3倍,日变化趋势符合蓝藻代谢规律。太湖西部蓝藻水华、湖西区的非甲烷总烃浓度和臭氧污染程度时空变化规律表明:太湖西部(宜兴)是整个流域臭氧污染最严重的区域,其臭氧污染的形成与太湖蓝藻水华暴发有关联性。     

Multi-response optimization of Fenton process for applicability assessment in landfill leachate treatment

Fenton process, as a pretreatment method, was found to be effective in the primary treatment of mature/medium landfill leachate. However, the main problem of the process is the large amount of produced sludge that requires an accurate feasibility evaluation for operational applications. In this study, the response surface methodology was applied for the modeling and optimization of Fenton process in three target responses, (1) overall COD removal, (2) sludge to iron ratio (SIR) and (3) organics removal to sludge ratio (ORSR), where the latter two were new self-defined responses for prediction of sludge generation and applicability assessment of the process, respectively. The effective variables included the initial pH, [H₂O₂]/[Fe²⁺] ratio and Fe²⁺ dosage. According to the statistical analysis, all the proposed models were adequate (with adjusted R² of 0.9116–0.9512) and had considerable predictive capability (with prediction R² up to 0.9092 and appropriate adequate precision). It was found that all the variables had significant effects on the responses, specifically by their observed role in dominant oxidation mechanism. The optimum operational conditions obtained by overlay plot, were found to be initial pH of 5.7, [H₂O₂]/[Fe²⁺] ratio of 17.72 and [Fe²⁺] of 195 mM, which led to 69% COD removal, 2.4 (l sludge/consumed mole Fe²⁺) of SIR and 16.5 (gCOD removed/l produced sludge) for ORSR in verification test, in accordance with models-predicted values. Finally, it was observed that [H₂O₂]/[Fe²⁺] ratio and Fe²⁺ dosage had significant influence on COD removal, while Fe²⁺ dosage and [H₂O₂]/[Fe²⁺] ratio had remarkable effects on SIR and ORSR responses, respectively.